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Are Mormons
Gullible Investors?
By Richard Halverson
Many years ago I worked for
a large investment organization in Missouri. (As you read
this article you will find it interesting to know that Missouri
refers to itself as the “show me state.”) A colleague of mine and I were in the
palatial New York offices of one of the country’s leading
investment bankers. After a long and animated discussion
regarding a new investment offering the senior member of
the investment banking team said, “This offer is so flaky
the only place it will sell is Salt Lake!”
I started to laugh, thinking
he was poking fun at me since I had grown up in Salt Lake.
However, I quickly realized this guy had zero sense of humor
and he thought I was from the Midwest. Worse, everyone
else was agreeing with him. On the flight home I asked
my colleague, “What was that Salt Lake crack all about?”
He said, “Don’t you know that Salt Lake is the investment
scam capital of the country? Those people out there will
buy anything.”
I have many more years in the
investment business now and unfortunately I have come to
realize there is considerable truth in the reputation that
Salt Lake has to this day. The Intermountain West has been
home to some big financial scams. I know that members of
the Church are still sufficiently large in Utah that most
things that go on in the state are a reflection of the Mormon
people. I have also noticed the Brethren counseling members
on this subject from time to time. Although these days
I hear them spending more time counseling members to get
out of debt. I think unwise speculation and unwise and
unwise accumulation of debt may have some common roots.
Mormons may be More Gullible
than Other Investors
Over the year I have spent
some time thinking about why Mormons might be particularly
vulnerable to unwise speculation and/or debt management.
Most of the factors I have come to believe contribute to
the problem are factors that are general to members of the
Church everywhere and not just Latter-day Saints in Utah.
These are not scientific, they are just my opinions. See
if they don’t make sense to you.
First,
most people tend to judge others by themselves. If you
are striving to be honest and always tell the truth, there
is a tendency to assume others will do the same. Regrettably,
that is not always the case. Honesty is a wonderful attribute.
However, if it leads to naivete it can be dangerous. Christ
was honest but he never for a minute misunderstood where
the Pharisees and Sadducees were coming from. He knew when
they were trying to trick him.
Second, Latter-day
Saints have respect for people serving in visible Church
callings. A salesman tells us that Bro. X, who happens
to hold a prominent Church calling, is on the board of directors
of the company. Or we are told that Bro. Y — who is a beloved
stake president — is a big investor. Or the person doing
the selling is on the high council of his stake. There
is a tendency for us to set aside our own critical study
and plunge in because people we respect spiritually are
involved financially. This is not a leap of logic we are
wise to make.
Third, some
Mormons are guilty of what I call righteous greed. We sometimes
reason that since we pay our tithing, attend the temple
regularly and always get our visiting teaching done in the
first half of the month we are entitled to a blessing.
And the blessing we want is a lot of money. (It may not
be the blessing the Lord wants for us.) We convince ourselves
the Lord will make the get-rich-quick scheme or the debt
we are looking at work out to our benefit. We reason to
ourselves that as soon as we are rich we will use the money
to retire to a lifetime of Church service. (Actual observation
suggests many members first want an expensive home and a
luxury car before helping out the poor and giving Church
service.)
Avoiding Speculation
How, then, can a person avoid
unwise speculation? There is no substitute for hard work,
investigation and looking at things with a critical eye.
I am not talking about avoiding risk. All investing involves
risk and investing is good. I am talking about understanding
risk.
-
Make
sure you know how the investment works. Behind every
investment is a business that generates income. Be certain
to understand how the business works and what the risks
to its success are. If you hope the investment is going
to pay big dividends, where will the cash come from?
If it is supposed to appreciate, what will cause that
to happen? One popular example among Mormons is the pyramid-marketing
scheme. You are recruited to join a company as a dealer.
You can make money by selling the product or by recruiting
other dealers to work under you. Many of these companies
sell real products and a few people make real money.
However, when you study how it really works you discover
the only way to make real money is by recruiting a lot
of people to work under you. If you run the math you
will typically find 80% of all the dealers are in a deficit
position all the time. Is it really attractive if you
have an 80% chance of losing money? Is it really attractive
if you make money but only by recruiting a lot of friends
who wind up in the 80% losing money? The way the math
works, it is almost impossible for everyone to make money.
- Read the prospectus or
offering statement. All publicly distributed investments
should have one. I know they are absolutely mind-numbing
to read, but they have a lot of useful information. Pay
particular attention to the section on risks. Often the
items in here are required boilerplate. Things that say
something like, “There can be no guarantee the boss will
come to work tomorrow.” Other risks are worth finding out
more about. Statements like, “The Company has never sold
this product before, needs to win a patent suit before it
can, and will then be in competition with ferocious competitors.”
(They probably won’t word things just like this, but you
get the idea.) Incidentally, if you are not offered a prospectus,
ask for one. If the salesperson does not have one, be very
suspicious. Listen to his explanation — then ask an attorney
if the explanation makes sense.
- Dig to understand if there
are any conflicts of interest that run counter to your interests.
These are situations where insiders can make a lot of money
at your expense. I think of a real estate partnership that
was sold in Utah. The partnership was raising money to
buy and develop a piece of land. When the facts were known,
the man who was president of the general partnership (and
an allegedly good member of the Church I might add) was
the sole owner of a private company that had an option on
the land. This means the president controlled the land
by investing almost none of his own money. He was going
to buy and sell it in his shell company with the investors’
money and reap a huge profit. To make matters worse there
was going to be an 8% brokerage fee paid. Guess who owned
the company that was getting that? Then to add insult to
injury the general partnership, owned by the president of
course, was taking a huge fee for raising the money. Of
every $1000 invested by investors $320 wound up in the president’s
pocket before any development began. Is it any surprise
the ultimate development was under capitalized and never
succeeded? (The president made a bundle, though!) These
can be tough to discover. Real scam artists are very good
at hiding these facts. But common sense and the offering
statement will help you identify most of the conflicts.
- Are you counting on someone
dumber than you to buy the investment from you when you
are smart enough to think it is time to sell?Don’t play
the greater fool game ‘lest you learn the hard way who the
greatest fool really is. Perhaps a classic example was
the Internet stocks. That speculation was hardly exclusive
to Mormons. We have saw companies that were barely real
companies snapped up on the original public offering and
given values in the billions just because they claimed to
be Internet stocks. Talking to buyers you basically heard,
“Sure they look overpriced but they are moving up fast.
So after I double my money I’ll get out.” I would ask,
“Who will buy it from you then? You think it is overpriced
now. According to that thinking it will be doubly overpriced
when you want to sell it!” The answer was, “I don’t know,
someone will.” (Translated, I’ll find a greater fool than
me.) I am sure you have not forgotten what happened to
most of those companies. Even the survivors fell over 90%
in value.
- Understand how the investment
is priced. If it trades on a public exchange or does
the company tell you what it is worth?
- Does success of the investment
depend upon the successful occurrence of complex events? Remember the chain is no stronger than its weakest link.
- Is the investment time
sensitive? Money invested in an option that must be
exercised before a certain time is at risk. Savings needed
to pay college tuition that are invested in a volatile asset
are at risk. A few years ago there was a story covered
in the papers. A student preparing to go medical school
in the fall opened an account with an online trading service
in the spring. He invested all the money he had saved for
medical school in volatile high tech companies. Then he
margined them, meaning he borrowed money to buy more. By
September of the stocks plummeted and he got wiped out.
But he apparently had thought of a safety net. He is sued
the broker. Despite the fact he electronically signed a
statement he knew what he was doing, he went on to claim
that they should have known better than too ever let him
do it. Brokers do have a legal obligation to qualify their
clients but this is ridiculous. (If he ever does get through
medical school I’ll bet he’ll be the first to complain about
frivolous malpractice suits.)
- Does the potential return
seem to be very large? Be particularly careful if at
the same time the risk seems small. Free capital markets
simply do not work that way. Potentially large returns
are associated with large risks, etc. I am aware of a terrible
case that sucked up a number of Mormons in a part of the
country outside Utah. The principles of the company were
not Mormon but some of the sales people were and this scam
spread through the Mormon community like wildfire. This
company asked people to invest with them. They used the
money to buy accounts receivable at a discount from hospitals.
Allegedly collecting money is so difficult for hospitals
they were willing to sell them to the company for $0.70
on the $1.00. The company was very efficient in filing
insurance claims and collecting so they could make a big
profit. If you know anything about the medical business,
you know that to this point it makes sense. Other industries
do it too. It is called factoring. I was asked to look
into the opportunity. Soon there were a lot of things that
didn’t make sense. The investors were being promised 20%
dividend returns. There was no prospectus. It looked like
a security but it was not registered with the SEC. If the
margins were this huge, why wasn’t every finance company
in America getting in? Then a company representative told
me that the president of the company was a millionaire many
times over and liked paying this much out to share his good
fortune with other people. That’s when I hung up the phone.
I don’t want to offend my readers, but only Mormons will
buy a line like that. It just doesn’t happen in the real
world. For several years the company kept paying the dividends
and I looked like an idiot. Then without warning the feds
swooped in and shut him down. It was a huge Ponzi scheme.
That means they were using the money from new investors
to pay dividends to the old investors. The high dividends
attracted more investors, etc. The president is now in
jail and I have friends who have lost their retirement.
- Will you have to borrow
heavily to make the investment? Borrowing increases
the risk.
- How serious would it be
to you if the investment fell in value or cut its dividend
and how likely is that to occur based on history? There
is an old adage of not investing money you can’t afford
to lose. This tends to over simplify the problem. In most
cases we aren’t going to lose it all. But we may lose enough
to hurt. The question is making a reasonable assessment
of risk in your situation.
- How stressful would it
be to you financially or emotionally if the investment resulted
in a substantial loss? Don’t forget to consider your spouse and family when
you are considering the potential stress.
- Understand how the person
selling the investment to you is being compensated.
They have a right to make money but the commission should
be reasonable. If not their integrity may be questioned.
For example, you may not be aware securities brokers generally
make a much bigger commission selling a new underwriting
than an existing security. That is especially true if it
is hard to sell. The problem is that many brokers in their
eagerness to earn money push the security to people who
should not own it. The broker making good money doesn’t
mean it is bad; it is just something you should think about.
- Are you getting a high
pressure, emotion filled sales pitch? Pressure is a
bad sign.
- Does there seem to be a
frenzy associated with this investment? Investment
frenzies often go much further than they should. The problem
is they end abruptly, without warning and with great loss
to the investors holding the “old maid” when it is over.
- If it seems to be too good
to be true it probably is. I know it is an old cliché
but it is accurate.
Risk is Part of Investing
After reading this list one
might think there is nothing but government insured savings
accounts to put money into. That is not what is meant.
There is nothing wrong with taking risk. The key is to
understand the risks, compare them to the rewards and to
your ability to absorb the risk.
Speculation is Everywhere,
but Mormons may be More Susceptible
Mormons are not the only ones
susceptible to a fast sales pitch and a speculative urge.
Speculation is a result of three elements.
1. Greed. This is really
the fanciful imagination of what we can do with a lot of
money.
2. Ignorance. Sometimes we
just do not know enough to ask the right questions or understand
the answers when we receive them. Sometimes we could understand
the answers, but they have been carefully hidden from us
and we don’t know how to find them.
3. Laziness. Often we just
do not invest the time to understand. If we viewed earning
money from investments as a sort of part-time job we would
recognize we need to work hard to succeed.
No, Mormons are not the only
ones susceptible to a fast sales pitch and a speculative
urge. However, if we are righteously greedy, ignorantly
naïve and lazy enough to believe the Lord will do all the
work for us, then we may be more susceptible to speculative
scams than almost anyone. It may be true that Zion is where
the pure in heart dwell. But I hope I am never sitting
in some investment banker’s office only to hear him say,
“This deal is so flaky the only place it will sell is in
Zion.”
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About
the Author:
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Richard
P. Halverson
Meridian Financial Editor
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Richard
P. Halverson is a founding partner of the investment company Great
Northern Capital. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in
Banking and Finance from the University of Utah and a Master of
Business Administration degree from Harvard University where he
was named a Baker Scholar. He
served on the following committees for the Association of Investment
Management and Research (AIMR): as a member of The Standards and
Practices Committee, 1981-1990; as a member and chairman of the
Professional Conduct Committee, 1982-1993; as chairman of the Ethics
Awareness and Education Committee, 1993-1996. In
1994, he received the Daniel J. Forrestall III Leadership Award
from The Association for Investment Management and Research (AIMR)
for his work in the area of ethics in the investment profession.
He first
became interested in personal finance while serving as a Bishop.
During the day he worked in the world of billion dollar finance,
but during the evenings he found himself immersed in the more difficult
world of family finance. This led him to write the book Financial
Freedom. He is also a contributing author to the McGraw Hill
Real Estate Handbook and Smart Money Magazine. He claims to be proof
that you can be in the investment business and still not get rich!
He resides in Minnesota and is the father of seven children.
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