M E R I D I A N     M A G A Z I N E

Responding to Uncertain Times
By Carolyn Nicolaysen

The San Francisco Chronicle reported on April 25 th 2008:

The climbing global price of rice and other staples shows no sign of leveling off, given caps placed on exports and various supply-side squeezes. As a result, food experts predict hunger and poverty in poor nations along with a restricted supply of grains coupled with rising prices in this country.

Two weeks ago I quoted prophets who warned us of calamities. Now I am quoting the news media. What has happened in the past two weeks? Plenty!

Could this be the storm President Hinckley warned us of? Or is this only the calm before the storm?

There is a portent of stormy weather ahead ( President Gordon B. Hinckley, 1998).

Prices for basic food supplies are being driven up by several factors:

Fuel prices . We have seen huge increases in fuel prices, due both to supply-and-demand market forces — and speculation. Fuel is needed in every segment of the food chain. Fuel is used in the planting, fertilizing and harvest of our food. Fuel is used in the cleaning and packaging of our food. Finally, fuel is used in the transport of our food from the farm to the processor, to the store and to our homes. Yes, the fuel crisis has affected and will continue to affect the price of our foods.

Weather conditions. Droughts have occurred in many food-producing countries of the world.

The shortage reflects restrictions on exports by major rice producers, notably India, Vietnam and Egypt, followed on Wednesday by Brazil, causing imbalance in world markets. These nations acted to ensure adequate domestic supplies amid rising world prices for preferable varieties of long-grain rice. Drought has contributed to the shortage, as has hoarding, experts say ( San Francisco Chronicle , April 25,2008).

In the Midwest this year, we have seen an extended rainy season.

Excessive wetness has held up spring corn plantings. Crops may benefit from that extra soil moisture during a dry summer, said Brad Rippey a U.S. Department of Agriculture meteorologist. "It's way too soon to have any great alarm," Rippey said. 

But crops planted during wet springs can develop shallow roots, making them more susceptible to a summer drought, warned National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration drought specialist Doug Lecomte ( Reuters, April 25, 2008).

Demand in emerging nations . Nations such as China and India have an emerging middle class. As their citizens have more money and resources, they are making greater demands on the world's grain supplies. As countries move from third world nation status, they begin eating more meats. As this happens, more of the grains available are used to feed livestock, making them more expensive. The law of supply and demand is still with us.

Diversion of some crops to produce bio fuels . With the increased demand for bio fuel crops, especially ethanol made from corn, we have diverted farm capacity and resources to produce fuel, not food.

World grain stocks are down.

World grain stocks already are at historically low levels. Further shortages would intensify competition between importing countries for available grain supplies, said Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute. Governments would probably have to ration food, said Brown, warning that levels of world hunger would rise ( Reuters, April 25, 2008).

What can we reasonably expect to happen now?

A spike in corn prices would:

"Immediately, there would not be a whole lot of impact on the U.S.," [Ron Plain, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Missouri] said. "The way we'd be impacted would be through meat, milk, and egg prices."

A spike in corn prices would hit U.S. livestock producers especially hard since they use corn to feed their animals.

"Pork producers, they're not weathering this current storm of high prices for corn that well," said Stewart Ramsey, a senior economist at Global Insight. Unless they received extensive aid, Ramsey said a severe drought "would clean house" in the hog industry, leaving only the strongest pork producers in business.

Poultry and cattle producers also would suffer, and eventually American consumers would face a surge in prices at the supermarket ( Reuters April 25, 2008).

The Facts

  1. Global food prices have increased by 43 per cent in the past year. Between 2000 and 2006, global food prices rose by only about five percent annually.

  2. The price of rice has risen to $894 per metric ton (MT = 2200 lbs.). Last year at this time, the price was $327.25/MT. The price of rice has doubled in the past five weeks.

  3. There are 100 million more people starving throughout the world than there were a year ago. Most of these live in countries where rice and wheat are the staples of their diets.

  4. Food riots are occurring.

    The shortage has led to food riots around the world, including deaths in Cameroon. Protesters chanting, "We're hungry!" caused Haiti to remove its prime minister.

    "You are seeing the return of the food riot, one of the oldest forms of collective action," said Raj Patel, a food policy specialist and visiting scholar at the UC Berkeley Center for African Studies. He noted that the Roman statesman Cicero was once chased from his house because he had food and the intruders didn't.

    "And that happens because people do not have access to food at prices they can afford," Patel said. "That is why they take to the streets" ( San Francisco Chronicle April 25, 2008).

  5. Food rationing has begun in the United States. Costco and WalMart/ Sam's Club are now limiting the amount of rice you can purchase per visit.

Two weeks ago we asked “Why Don't We Prepare?” If you still have this question, consider events in Juneau, Alaska this past week:

Alaska Electric Light & Power spokeswoman Gayle Wood says the massive avalanche ( April 16th) was about three miles from the Snettisham power house. The mile-and-a-half wide slide took out more than a mile of transmission line. She says at least two transmission towers are down and others are damaged on the Snettisham line, which connects hydropower to the service area. Wood says it could be a month before workers can safely begin repairing the line. She says hydropower wouldn't be restored for at least three months.

"This is an extremely bad time to need diesel fuel generation, given the costs," Wood said.

It will take about 100,000 gallons of fuel a day to carry the town on diesel, Wood estimated, with a possible cost of $375,000 to $400,000 a day just for the fuel ( Fox News, April 19, 2008).

Energy costs in Juneau went from $0.11 per kilowatt-hour to $0.50 per kilowatt-hour instantly. Imagine your electricity bill quintupling. How would you pay the bill? Maybe living off food storage could help.

I don't believe in scare tactics, but these are facts. I had so many questions this week as so much news was developing. Of course my most frequent question was, "What do I do?" The answer is much more complicated than the simple, "Get started." I advocated on my blog to help families get started.

So if you are still feeling overwhelmed by the thought of preparing, but finally are motivated to get going, please check out what we are doing there.

Please don't run out and hoard rice. Please don't empty your bank account and run to the store. Please don't order a year's supply of dehydrated food so you can be “done.” Please, please don't panic. There is no need. There is only a need to begin an organized, consistent course of action.

I would like to share with you what others have done:

A single mom in Washington shared:

I am a single parent, displaced homemaker, over 50, underemployed etc., but I try to keep the commandments, pay tithing and prepare. An interesting thing happened when our region had a big storm, with electricity out for days and record cold. It was miserable! But I had candles, hand warmers, a little camp stove and means to make warm food, a wind-up radio, and other things. I had emergency supplies. I was able to take care of my daughter and me! I was able to share with neighbors in my apartment building! It was wonderful! I made warm food and took it to neighbors. I shared my hand warmers. It felt so good!

I am honestly unable to do a full-scale storage and I struggle to even pay my monthly bills. I don't know how I make it from paycheck to paycheck, but I did what I could and when the time came, I was blessed. I felt so useful. When the storm passed, and the sun came back out, I replaced my supplies and made a note in my journal of what I had learned. It was wonderfully satisfying and I will never forget it. I did my best and the Lord blessed me. Sometimes I wonder if emergency preparedness is as overwhelming to some of us as family history. Both of those are hard for me to fit in at this point, but I do what I can and I have been blessed. I expect that applies to all of us.

I know how she makes it from paycheck to paycheck — she is living the gospel. The Lord tells us to do all we can and He will do the rest. She is doing all she can.

This story comes from a sister in Utah. What a great example!

Just over a year ago, the spirit whispered to me that we as a family needed to "Be Prepared!"  After a week of soul-searching, I talked to my husband about my feelings. He also had felt the need to prepare ourselves in all things. As we had barely adequate 72-hour kits and a couple of weeks' worth of groceries (nothing close to a “supply of food” — just some basics), we knew that we had some work to do!

We first knelt in prayer, thanking our Heavenly Father for the prompting and asking for his partnership in our endeavors. We reviewed our budget and sought for ways to stretch our funds and rearrange our spending. We adopted the motto, "If it can't be stored and eaten — do we need to buy it or spend money on it?" As avid movie buffs, the first thing to go was our DVD and Movie/Entertainment allowance.  Date nights would be going to the "most excellent movie in the world" (the temple!). Many other spending and buying habits were set aside.

I began reading, studying and talking to those who were already living the "Prepared Way of Life" — (those who had their year+ supply and were using it). We decided we were not going to spend our precious dollars on all this and let it just sit in the basement, untouched for 20 years then throw it all out.

I made a shopping list (an Excel spreadsheet) of the items that we needed and the amounts that would keep our family fed for a year. At first it seemed daunting! How was I going to afford all this? Where were we going to put it all? But knowing that we were doing as the Lord had commanded, we became as Nephi, "I will go and do" knowing that our Heavenly Father would provide the way.

It wasn't always easy, Satan will always throw obstacles in our path, but we were determined. We built storage shelves, shopped sales, found outlets for bulk items, and continued learning. One two-week grocery budget was spent on a grain mill, while our meals came from our storage. Birthday and Christmas gifts were storage items. My kids thought I was crazy when I told them I wanted water barrels! By breaking the spending and shopping down into manageable and "budgetable" parts, we could see our progress.

I now walk into my storage room that is filled floor to ceiling with buckets of wheat and different grains, a multitude of bean varieties, powdered milk, honey, sugars, baking supplies, canned goods, dehydrated goods, spices, and other things, and just can't stop smiling. I understand the phrase "my joy is complete" in a small measure.

The journey/task is not over. We still see needs that need to be addressed. (Just how will I do laundry if there is no power for an extended length of time?) But I know that I have enough to feed my family for at least a year, and I know how to use it all! (Investing in a good preparedness cookbook is critical.)

Gathering and storing a year's supply is similar to paying tithing. If you look at the logic of it, there is no way that we can afford to do it. But the blessings that come are tremendous! By taking the leap of faith and committing to do as commanded, the Lord will pave the way. In the Lord's eyes there is no difference between spiritual and temporal, and what we thought was a temporal endeavor, has become a sweet spiritual journey.

I was so inspired by this family's experience! Did you notice the steps they took? These are the steps we can all take to reach our own preparedness goal. They listened to the promptings they received; they made the decision to begin; they prayed for help and guidance; they examined their budget and committed to eliminate the extras. They made food storage a priority, made a list of what they needed, involved the entire family, became educated, and followed a plan. Most importantly, they trusted the Lord to take care of them on their journey. We can all do they same.

From Missouri I received a comment about a common problem:

We could probably start our own food storage with little difficulty if we were really determined; our challenge is finding the space. We have three children and live in a very small apartment with virtually no storage space.

Since we rent, we are unable to install shelves to allow us to store food. We have a couple of feet under the stairs that we could clear out, but the storage space would be minimal. My chief frustration comes from a general lack of information for people with such tight quarters; everything I have seen seems geared toward homeowners who either have a basement or garage, or who can build storage space. It would be extremely helpful to find information for people with little storage space who are unable to do much to create additional space.

We are expecting our stimulus check in the next month or so. I fully agree that food is far more valuable than cash … and so my wife and I have decided that after making a couple of car payments, we will use the rest to purchase food storage.

Not long after writing the above, our Missouri reader wrote us again:

This morning I cleared out a bunch of space under the stairs to put some food. We're also planning to clean out our storage shed so that we can keep some things there. Space is still limited, but we can at least do a little something.

It is great to witness families who are just getting started and trusting they will be blessed. They have a problem but they are moving forward and I am confident they will solve it.

If you are also having a space issue, check out Meridian articles: Storing Food Safely and Making Space for Food Storage . Again, check my blog where there are more ideas. I would love to list every tip here, but space is limited.

We are not on this road alone. Please share your stories with us so we can gain strength and motivation from each other.

The times are uncertain, but the Lord's counsel has been clear. We can and should prepare, because for many of us, the cost of having “no oil in our lamp” can mean that we are temporally and spiritually unprepared to “go to the feast.” None of us are on this road alone.

Then shall the kingdom of heaven be likened unto ten virgins, which took their lamps, and went forth to meet the bridegroom.

And five of them were wise, and five were foolish.

They that were foolish took their lamps, and took no oil with them:

But the wise took oil in their vessels with their lamps.

While the bridegroom tarried, they all slumbered and slept.

And at midnight there was a cry made, Behold, the bridegroom cometh; go ye out to meet him.

Then all those virgins arose, and trimmed their lamps.

And the foolish said unto the wise, Give us of your oil; for our lamps are gone out.

But the wise answered, saying, Not so; lest there be not enough for us and you: but go ye rather to them that sell, and buy for yourselves.

And while they went to buy, the bridegroom came; and they that were ready went in with him to the marriage: and the door was shut.

Afterward came also the other virgins, saying, Lord, Lord, open to us.

But he answered and said, Verily I say unto you, I know you not.

Watch therefore, for ye know neither the day nor the hour wherein the Son of man cometh.

Matthew 25:1-13

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